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Verisk Analytics, Inc. (VRSK)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 delivered solid top-line and margin performance: revenue $0.753B (+7.0% YoY; +7.9% OCC), adjusted EBITDA $0.417B (+9.5% YoY), adjusted EBITDA margin 55.3% (+130 bps YoY) .
  • Verisk modestly beat Wall Street consensus on revenue and EPS; revenue $753M vs $749.8M consensus*, adjusted EPS $1.73 vs primary EPS consensus $1.683* . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Guidance reiterated for FY 2025 (revenue $3.03–$3.08B; adj. EBITDA $1.67–$1.72B; adj. EPS $6.80–$7.10; margin 55.0%–55.8%), signaling confidence in durability and pricing realization .
  • Call emphasized subscription growth (83% of revenue; +10.6% OCC), pricing/value capture in Forms/Rules/Loss Costs, and ecosystem connectivity across underwriting and claims, supporting multi-year margin profile .
  • Catalysts: sustained subscription strength, margin discipline, product innovations (Core Lines Reimagined, Synergy Studio), and regulatory traction (California wildfire model) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • “Delivered broad-based top line growth across underwriting and claims and healthy profit growth” (CEO) with OCC revenue +7.9% and OCC adj. EBITDA +9.5% .
    • Subscription mix and momentum: subscriptions 83% of revenue; subscription OCC +10.6%; strong price realization and renewals in Forms/Rules/Loss Costs and high single-digit subscription growth in Extreme Event Solutions (EES) .
    • Capital return and balance sheet strength: $391M FCF (+23.3% YoY), $0.45 dividend; $200M ASR completed; $1.4B repurchase authorization remaining .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Transactional revenue declined 4% OCC, reflecting conversions to subscriptions, soft personal auto transactional activity, and lower service revenues in certain software businesses .
    • Higher interest expense and tax rate headwinds: net interest expense $36M (vs $29M prior year) and effective tax rate 21.6% (vs 20.3%), tempering EPS flow-through .
    • Marketing Solutions weakness outside insurance (financial services and mortgage segments facing macro headwinds), with potential pressure if discretionary spend slows .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$704 $736 $753
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$380 $398 $417
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)54.0% 54.1% 55.3%
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)$1.52 $1.44 $1.65
Diluted Adjusted EPS ($)$1.63 $1.61 $1.73
Net Income attributable to Verisk ($USD Millions)$219.6 $210.4 $232.3

Segment revenue breakdown

SegmentQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Underwriting Revenues ($USD Millions)$498 $512 $532
Claims Revenues ($USD Millions)$206 $224 $221
Insurance Total Revenues ($USD Millions)$704 $736 $753

KPIs

KPIQ1 2025
Subscription revenue mix (% of total)83%
Subscription OCC growth (%)10.6%
Transactional revenue mix (% of total)17%
Transactional OCC growth (%)-4%
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities ($USD Millions)$444.7
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$391.0
Dividend per share ($)$0.45

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Feb 26)Current Guidance (May 7)Change
Total revenueFY 2025$3.03–$3.08B $3.03–$3.08B Maintained
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025$1.67–$1.72B $1.67–$1.72B Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA marginFY 202555.0%–55.8% 55.0%–55.8% Maintained
Diluted adjusted EPSFY 2025$6.80–$7.10 $6.80–$7.10 Maintained
Tax rateFY 202523%–25% 23%–25% Maintained
Capital expendituresFY 2025$245–$265M $245–$265M Maintained
Fixed asset D&AFY 2025$250–$270M $250–$270M Maintained
Intangible amortizationFY 2025$65M $65M Maintained
Interest expenseFY 2025$145–$165M $145–$165M Maintained
Dividend per shareFY 2025$0.45 $0.45 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (Prev-2)Q4 2024 (Prev-1)Q1 2025 (Current)Trend
AI/Tech initiativesIntroduced Future of Forms; Executive Insights expansion; ecosystem tooling; strong subscription growth Broad GenAI deployment (Discovery Navigator, adjuster co‑pilot); client-facing automation GenAI tool within forms management; continued digital delivery and automation Expanding client-facing AI and workflow automation
Ecosystem/connectivityOpta peril score with Verisk claims data; mobile app for surveys; London market connectivity 21 new PES partners; anti‑fraud partner expansion; portfolio rationalization (AER sale) More partners across underwriting/claims; RDX platform; Simplitium acquisition for third‑party models Broader partner ecosystem and cross‑data connectivity
Pricing/mixSubscriptions 82% (+9.1% OCC); conversions from transactional Subscriptions 82% (+11% OCC); conversions continue Subscriptions 83% (+10.6% OCC); transactional -4% OCC Elevated subscription mix; transactional normalizing
EES performance10 new clients; next-gen models; strong growth Strong renewals and extended terms High single-digit subscription growth in EES Sustained strength
Regulatory/legal (CA wildfire)Submitted wildfire model; engagement with regulators Emphasized use for ratemaking; industry impact Ongoing client/regulator dialogue; minimal direct wildfire revenue impact Progressing regulatory traction
Tariffs/macroPremium growth; combined ratios improving; cat losses elevated Watching regulatory changes; macro factors as swing Monitoring tariff impacts on claims costs; limited direct exposure Rising focus on macro cost drivers

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “2025 is off to a solid start… delivered broad-based top line growth across underwriting and claims and healthy profit growth… focused on supporting clients with insights and solutions that drive efficiency and automation” .
  • CFO: “OCC revenue growth of 7.9% and OCC adjusted EBITDA growth of 9.5%… returned over $250 million to shareholders… reiterating our financial guidance for 2025” .
  • Go-to-market progress and innovation: extended improved sales model to broader businesses; launching cloud-native Verisk Synergy Studio in 2026 to connect catastrophe models and act as an ecosystem hub .
  • Subscription and pricing: “Subscription revenues comprised 83%… grew 10.6% OCC… strong price realization in renewals… converting transactional clients to committed subscriptions” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Marketing Solutions: Insurance client demand healthy; non-insurance segments (financial services/mortgage) facing headwinds; potential pressure if discretionary spend weakens .
  • Margins: Expansion aided by sales leverage, expense timing, and cost discipline; PES saw modest high-margin storm tailwind; investment intensity balances margin trajectory .
  • Pricing realization: Value-based pricing across Forms/Rules/Loss Costs and EES; multi-year contracts support gradual, sustained pricing benefits .
  • Macro/tariffs: Limited direct exposure; focus on analytics to help clients measure potential tariff impacts on claims costs .
  • Transactional trends: Decline due to conversions, soft personal auto, lumpy services; discrete contract conversion impact (200–250 bps) in Q1; storm-related transactional tail modest and normalized .

Estimates Context

MetricQ1 2025 ConsensusQ1 2025 ActualSurprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)$749.8M*$753.0M +$3.2M
Primary EPS ($)$1.683*$1.73 +$0.047

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Implications: Modest beat on revenue and EPS supports guidance reiteration; estimate revisions likely minor and focused on margin assumptions given stronger mix and price realization .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Subscription-driven model momentum (83% of revenue, +10.6% OCC) and pricing/value capture underpin visibility in growth and margins; transactional headwinds manageable due to conversions and product mix .
  • Margin discipline continues (55.3% adj. EBITDA margin; +130 bps YoY), aided by sales leverage and cost optimization, while funding innovation for future growth .
  • Guidance unchanged across all metrics signals confidence; near-term catalysts include continued EES renewal strength and Core Lines Reimagined module rollouts .
  • Capital returns remain robust (FCF $391M, dividend $0.45, ASR completed; $1.4B authorization remaining), supported by balance sheet flexibility .
  • Macro watch: tariffs could pressure claims costs; Verisk’s analytics help carriers measure and mitigate; direct Verisk exposure limited .
  • Regulatory traction: California wildfire model engagement positions Verisk as a strategic partner in ratemaking modernization; long-term demand tailwind .
  • Trading lens: modest beat and reiterated guide with durable subscription growth and margin expansion supports constructive near-term sentiment; watch for sustained pricing realization and ecosystem product uptake in coming quarters .

Additional Relevant Press Releases (Q1 2025)

  • Verisk Wildfire Model is the First Catastrophe Model Under Review for Ratemaking in California (Jan 2, 2025) .
  • One Inc partners with Verisk; EagleView and Verisk collaborate to streamline property insurance workflows (Feb 3, 2025) .
  • To Combat Mounting Cargo Theft, Verisk Launches CargoNet® RoadMap (Jan 23, 2025) .
  • Verisk Estimates Industry Insured Losses for the Palisades and Eaton Earthquakes (Jan 22, 2025) .

Prior Two Quarters (for trend)

  • Q4 2024: Revenue $736M (+8.6%), adj. EBITDA $398M (+9.9%), adj. EBITDA margin 54.1%, adj. EPS $1.61; subscriptions 82% with +11% OCC; guidance initiated for FY25 (same ranges as reiterated) .
  • Q3 2024: Revenue $725M (+7.0%), adj. EBITDA $401M (+9.4%), adj. EBITDA margin 55.2%, adj. EPS $1.67; subscriptions 82% with +9.1% OCC; strong EES sales (10 new clients) .